Real Estate Stocks Climb as December Fed Rate-Cut Odds Hit 86%

Real estate stocks rallied during the Thanksgiving-shortened week as the likelihood of another Federal Reserve interest-rate cut in December surged, triggering a broad rebound across REITs and property-linked equities.

New York Fed President John Williams said on November 21 that there is “room” for more monetary easing — a comment that immediately boosted investor sentiment across the real estate sector.

Fed Rate-Cut Probability Jumps

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets now assign an 86.4% probability to a 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming December 9–10 FOMC meeting.

Lower rates typically support:

REIT valuations
Mortgage demand
Commercial real estate financing
Housing-related equities

Sector Performance During Thanksgiving Week

Indexes

S&P 500 Real Estate Sector (SP500-60): +1.83% → 262.34
Real Estate Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLRE): +1.88% → 41.67
Dow Jones Equity REIT Total Return Index (REIT:IND): +1.76%
FTSE Nareit All Equity REITs Index: +1.73%

The overall sector benefited from expectations of easing financial conditions heading into year-end.

Key Company Developments

M&A, Governance & Corporate Updates

Four Corners Property Trust (FCPT): Acquiring two Hawaiian Bros properties for $5.9M
Plymouth Industrial REIT (PLYM): Sixth Street abandoned its takeover proposal
Orion Properties (ONL): Rejected Kawa Fund’s board nomination notice as invalid
FrontView REIT (FVR): Approved up to $75M stock repurchase program

Dividends & Capital Updates

Gaming and Leisure Properties (GLPI): Declared $0.78/share dividend
Armada Hoffler (AHH): Declared $0.14/share dividend
Elme Communities (ELME): Declared a special $14.67/share liquidating distribution

Weekly Winners & Losers

Top Gainers — S&P 500 Real Estate

Alexandria Real Estate Equities (ARE): +8.20% → $53.67
- Despite ongoing federal securities investigation
CBRE Group (CBRE): +6.86% → $161.83

Top Losers — S&P 500 Real Estate

Equinix (EQIX): –1.92% → $753.31
- Reportedly bidding for Nordic data-center operator atNorth
- Announced C$700M notes due 2032
Digital Realty (DLR): Also tied to atNorth bidding

Top Movers Across the Broader Real Estate Sector

Biggest Winners

Rocket Companies (RKT): +17.64% → $19.98
Opendoor Technologies (OPEN): +16.29% → $7.70
Fathom Holdings (FTHM): +14.68% → $1.29

Biggest Decliners

LandBridge (LB): –12.11% → $56.95
Ohmyhome (OMH): –11.17% → $0.85