U.S. Oil Majors Defy Market Weakness with Higher Output

Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) — the two largest U.S. oil producers — both reported higher Q3 production, defying expectations for slowing output amid weakening oil prices.
The increases come as the WTI benchmark trades near $60/bbl, the profitability threshold for many producers, raising concerns that continued expansion could worsen the global supply glut heading into 2026.

Exxon Mobil Hits Record Output

Exxon Mobil (XOM) achieved another production record in the third quarter, producing nearly 1.7 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) in the Permian Basin and exceeding 700,000 bbl/d at its Guyana operations.
Total production rose to 4.8 million bbl/d, up from 4.6 million in Q2.

“We set yet another production record. Our Permian production continues to grow well into the next decade,” said CEO Darren Woods, adding that Exxon remains committed to long-term investment while competitors shift to “harvest mode.”

However, some analysts voiced concerns about rising debt levels.
HSBC analyst Kim Fustier noted that Exxon’s dividend and buyback programs are not fully covered by free cash flow, suggesting pressure on balance sheet strength.

Chevron Expands Output Through Hess Integration

Chevron (CVX) reported record production of 4.1 million bbl/d, up 21% year-over-year, supported by the integration of Hess, which contributed nearly 500,000 bbl/d.
The company also benefited from output gains at its U.S. and Kazakhstan operations, adding 227,000 bbl/d collectively.
Chevron’s Permian production climbed to 60,000 bbl/d above its 1 million bbl/d plateau, underscoring strong shale performance.

Oil Prices Under Pressure

Despite production strength, crude prices remain under strain.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts Brent crude averaging $62/bbl in Q4 2025, dropping further to $52/bbl in FY 2026 as supply growth outpaces demand.

On Friday,

WTI (CL1:COM) settled at $60.98/bbl (-0.8%),
Brent (CO1:COM) at $65.07/bbl (-1.3%).

However, both benchmarks saw slight gains into the weekend ahead of the OPEC+ meeting, where members are expected to approve another 137,000 bbl/d output increase for December.

Reports of possible U.S. military action in Venezuela briefly lifted prices before being denied by the administration.

Natural Gas Rises on Winter Demand

Meanwhile, U.S. natural gas futures (NG1:COM) climbed for a third consecutive week, gaining 3.2% to $4.124/MMBtu, supported by early winter weather forecasts and strong heating demand.

Energy Sector Performance

Energy equities were mixed for the week:
The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) finished roughly flat, while select energy names saw sharp moves.

Top Gainers (Past 5 Days):
EDN (+71.9%), CEPU (+64.6%), PUMP (+64.5%), TGS (+38.5%), CSIQ (+38.4%), PAM (+37%), YPF (+35.2%), ACDC (+26.9%), DQ (+25.4%), VIST (+21%), UROY (+20.6%), BE (+19.7%), GPRK (+19%), SMR (+18.9%), AESI (+17.8%), JKS (+16.5%), CCJ (+16%), OMSE (+16%), NRT (+14%), WHD (+13.5%).

Top Decliners (Past 5 Days):
FLUX (-61.4%), VVPR (-40%), UAMY (-32.8%), ITRI (-26.2%), TMQ (-25.7%), SOC (-21.7%), EP (-21.4%), NEXM (-20.9%), TYGO (-18.3%), LAC (-18.1%).

Key Takeaways

Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) ramped up production despite falling oil prices.
Exxon’s Permian and Guyana output hit new records, totaling 4.8M bbl/d.
Chevron’s production reached 4.1M bbl/d, up 21% Y/Y, aided by Hess integration.
Brent crude forecast to drop to $52/bbl in 2026, signaling continued pressure.
Natural gas rose 3.2% on winter demand expectations.
Energy ETFs like XLE finished flat, with large volatility among smaller producers.